A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Each authors two pieces that seek impartiality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates encompass identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the idea that there could be valid points on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed here and somebody will eventually lose but each side has got important lessons to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
